Norman Said:

How were the Polls in 1948 Between Harry Truman & Thomas Edmund Dewey? Are There Parallels Now for McCain Hope?

We Answered:

Well, no. First, polls were much sparser at that time. You barely had a poll a week or so. Second, you COULD compare it, yes. McCain is at a worse situation than Truman was at the same time, but not much. I think Truman was down 5 at this time that year and that was about when the last poll was taken. McCain is down about 9 points.
But the big difference is that Truman was not down because the public was against him, but because the Democratic Party was split in the main party and the so-called "Dixiecrats" in the South who were polling at almost 10% during some times in summer. Truman picked up support not mainly from Dewey, but from the collapsing Dixiecrats and from undecided voters. McCain has not such a source of support, even if he would get the lions share of undecided voters, Obama is over 50.

And lastly, the science of polling was not so sophisticated as it is today. Today pollsters can weight their samples to the party registration numbers from the state board of elections updated daily. They have robocalls, random number dialing, likely voter models, can anaylze the 2004 Exit Polls. At that time, barely 1/3 of the population had TELEPHONES, when I´m right. You can´t compare that.

Here´s a source for the Gallup polls in that election. I think Gallup was the only pollster then, maybe except one or two others that did not put out polls regularly.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/orig…


Information Police: I wouldn´t compare that with 1980. First, they had a sizeable third party with Independent Candidate Anderson, who polled at 20% for two months or so.
Second, Carters 30% lead collapsed in MARCH. Since July, they were deadlocked. Reagan pulled away in the last days, but from a tie, not from behind. This reminds me more of Roosevelt vs. Wendell Wilkie. Roosevelt ahead by 5-10% for most of the cycle, Wilkie closing in to 5% in October (we saw that a week ago), then losing support again (which is what we have now.)

Edgar Said:

Have you seen the latest polls? What do you think they mean?

We Answered:

They all say some thing different, don't they. CNN has the polls at Obama 44, and McCain 41. So, I guess we can't believe any of them.

Lena Said:

45 to 45 in latest Gallup poll; where has the "One's" election energy gone?

We Answered:

a four point , so called lead is within the margin of error and is not kicking someones butt LOL
but when you drop 12 points in less than a month like Obama has that is some serious problems for the Obama campaign

Willie Said:

How late are the polls open on election day?

We Answered:

That depends on the state