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Election Exit Polls

Jacqueline Said:

How can Reid lose the exit polls, but win the election?

We Answered:

Because the unions ran the election and the illegals voted.

Micheal Said:

Who conducts the election exit polls?

We Answered:

Exit polling is conducted by private polling organizations like Zogby, Gallup, and others.

Using census data, micro-marketing data, and previous voting records, these groups pick key voting districts (or precincts) that fit the larger demographic profiles of the states in which they're found.

Pollster are hired to stand outside of polling stations (Usually 20 to 50 feet away, depending on local laws) and ask people who are leaving the polling station to answer some demographic questions (age, occupation, etc. etc.) and how they voted.

The technique used to pick the people is known as "systematic random sampling," which is choosing a random number between 1 and 10 (let's say "7") and then approaching every 7th person who emerges from the polls.

People always find it hard to believe that the opinions of millions of people can be predicted by looking at the opinions of a few thousand; but the procedure works remarkably well.

Hope this answer helps. Cheers, mate.

Jeffery Said:

Would John Edwards have won the 2004 election, according to the exit polls?

We Answered:

Not a chance. Ticket with him on it didn't win his own state. Only time in my life presidential candidate ever came to my town, and didn't walk few blocks because of second worse VP choice made by Democratic.

Gertrude Said:

Should we get rid of exit polls? What impact would that make on an election?

We Answered:

I totally agree with the asker. I don't think any election results, whether exit polls, pre-election polls, or votes-counted-so-far should be released until all polling locations have closed their voting booths.

If the news media call the election before all the polling locations close (which they HAVE done in the past), they in a sense disenfranchise voters who haven't yet made it to the polls ("well, so-n-so has already lost, so my one vote isn't going to make any difference").

Luis Said:

Why believe pre-election polls, and not exit polls?

We Answered:

Actually, it's the other way around. Where have you heard differently?

Update:

Okay, well, I haven't gotten an answer to the question, so I'll just go ahead and explain what I said. In theory, exit polls are considered to be more accurate because they measure how people actually voted once the deed is done. Pre-election polls are always subject to last minute changes of heart or an unwillingness on the part of voters to be honest with pollsters (or with themselves) because of some sort of social pressure.

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