Cory Said:

Who is Joe the plumber? Republicians want to pretend that he is/was just an average guy wrong This is Joe ?

We Answered:

You're right, it was a desperate move by the McCain camp. They didn't properly vet this guy before exploiting him.

Ray Said:

How can Obama win president?

We Answered:

He can't win that's why he shouldn't be our nonimee

Clarence Said:

What will right-wing talk radio rant about now that 44 Senate Democrats voted to ban the fairness doctrine?

We Answered:

Listen tomorrow and find out.

Clinton Said:

So Pro War Conservatives, how do you explain this??

We Answered:

elections are coming up. the rats are jumping ship

Leslie Said:

Were Obama's victories in VA, NC and FL southern flukes or growing trends and does it matter?

We Answered:

Obama's win in VA was definitely no fluke. It's been trending Democratic for years, due to the large black population and the increasingly large population of northern Virginians who work for the federal government and don't respond well to anti-government rhetoric.

NC is also moving toward the center, but is still a pretty right-wing southern state. I'd be surprised if Obama won it in 2012, but it isn't impossible.

A good way to see the trends in these states is to see how large their vote for Republicans was over the national vote in 2000, 2004, and 2008. NC is strongly moving toward swing state status, as can be seen if you look at the shrinking Republican advantage: 13% (2000), 8% (2004), 6%(2008). VA is an even clearer trend: 8.5%, 5%, 1%. FL seems to be trending Republican: 0.5%, 2,5%, 4.6%. But there is a chance that the increasing Republican tendency to base their appeal on fear of Hispanics could hurt them with the large Cuban vote that they need to carry FL.

The basic way Republicans win in 2012 is to carry the normally red states that Obama won (IN, NC, VA) and take both FL and OH. Taking back those 5 states would only make it close by the 2008 electoral count, but it might be enough to win in the 2012 count, which gives more votes to several red states.

It can be done, but won't be easy. One further problem for the GOP is that AZ, which Obama didn't contest in 2008 since he was up against McCain, is probably also trending Democratic. Even TX is, for that matter, again due to an increasing Hispanic vote, but Texas is a safe red state through 2016 - after that, maybe not so much. If Obama wins AZ in 2012, it gets hard to find a way for Republicans to win.